empty
13.01.2025 03:44 PM
EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on January 13th (Analysis of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I highlighted the level of 1.0209 and planned to make trading decisions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. A decline followed by the formation of a false breakout at that level provided a buying opportunity, which resulted in a 20-point growth before pressure on the pair resumed. The technical picture for the second half of the day remains unchanged.

This image is no longer relevant

To Open Long Positions on EUR/USD:

The euro remains under pressure, which is unsurprising. Following US news and statements by European policymakers about the possibility of more aggressive rate cuts by the European Central Bank, there is little hope for upward momentum in the EUR/USD pair. Unfortunately, there are no significant economic data releases from the US this afternoon, so it is better to continue acting in line with the existing bearish trend while remaining cautious about potential corrections in the pair.

If pressure on the pair persists, I plan to act only around the nearest support at 1.0176, which narrowly missed a test during the first half of the day. A false breakout formation at this level would provide a good buying opportunity, aiming for resistance at 1.0219. A breakout and retest of this range from above would confirm a proper entry point for further buying, with targets at 1.0247. The ultimate target will be the 1.0277 high, where I plan to take profits.

If EUR/USD continues to decline and there is no bullish activity around 1.0176 in the afternoon, the pressure on the pair will likely increase, allowing sellers to reach 1.0132, a new yearly low. Only after a false breakout there would I consider entering long positions. I will open long positions on a direct rebound from 1.0090, targeting a 30-35 point upward correction during the day.

To Open Short Positions on EUR/USD:

Sellers wasted no time resuming pressure on the euro, aiming to reach parity with the dollar in the coming weeks. Given the lack of US statistics this afternoon, the pair may experience a correction, so caution with shorts is advised. A false breakout at 1.0219 would provide an entry point for short positions, aiming for support at 1.0176. A breakout and consolidation below this range, followed by a retest from below, would serve as another suitable selling opportunity, targeting the yearly low at 1.0132, which would strengthen the bearish trend. The ultimate target will be 1.0090, where I plan to take profits.

If EUR/USD moves higher in the second half of the day and sellers fail to show activity around 1.0219, where moving averages are also bearish, I will postpone short positions until the next resistance test at 1.0247. I will sell there only after a failed consolidation. I plan to open short positions on a direct rebound from 1.0247, aiming for a 30-35 point downward correction.

This image is no longer relevant

The COT report for December 31 showed nearly equal growth in both short and long positions. Considering that the Federal Reserve's policy remained unchanged before the new year, attention is likely shifting to Donald Trump's inauguration and his protectionist rhetoric. However, any statements by Federal Reserve officials will also play a significant role in the future course of the US dollar and should not be ignored. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions increased by 9,335 to 168,806, while short non-commercial positions increased by 10,392 to 238,370. As a result, the gap between long and short positions widened by 1,208.

This image is no longer relevant

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages:

Trading occurs below the 30- and 50-day moving averages, indicating further pair declines.

Note: The author considers moving averages on the H1 chart, which may differ from the classic D1 definition.

Bollinger Bands:

In case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator near 1.0205 will act as support.

Indicator Descriptions:

  • Moving Average: Indicates the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise. Period: 50 (yellow line), 30 (green line).
  • MACD: Moving Average Convergence/Divergence. Fast EMA: 12, Slow EMA: 26, SMA: 9.
  • Bollinger Bands: Period: 20.
  • Non-commercial traders: Speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and institutions using futures markets for speculative purposes.
  • Long Non-commercial Positions: Represents the total long open positions of non-commercial traders.
  • Short Non-commercial Positions: Represents the total short open positions of non-commercial traders.
  • Net Non-commercial Position: The difference between short and long positions held by non-commercial traders.
EURUSD
Euro vs US Dollar
Summary
Sell
Urgency
1 day
Analytic
Maxim Magdalinin
Start trade
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

GBP/USD: plan para la sesión europea del 29 de enero. Informes Commitment of Traders COT (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). La libra se mantiene por encima de la cifra 24

GBP/USD: plan para la sesión europea del 29 de enero. Informes Commitment of Traders COT (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). La libra se mantiene por encima de la cifra

Miroslaw Bawulski 07:17 2025-01-29 UTC+2

EUR/USD: plan para la sesión europea del 29 de enero. Informes COT (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). El euro en modo de espera

Ayer se formó solo una buena configuración para entrar en el mercado. Veamos el gráfico de 5 minutos y analicemos lo que sucedió allí. En mi pronóstico matutino, presté atención

Miroslaw Bawulski 07:17 2025-01-29 UTC+2

GBP/USD: plan para la sesión europea del 28 de enero. Informes COT Commitment of Traders (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). Vuelve la presión sobre la libra

Ayer sólo se formó un punto de entrada. Echemos un vistazo al gráfico de 5 minutos y veamos qué ocurrió. En mi previsión de la mañana, me centré

Miroslaw Bawulski 08:24 2025-01-28 UTC+2

EUR/USD: plan para la sesión europea del 28 de enero. Informes COT Commitment of Traders (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). El euro volvió a caer significativamente.

Ayer se formaron varios puntos de entrada al mercado. Veamos el gráfico de 5 minutos y analicemos lo sucedido. En mi pronóstico matutino, presté atención al nivel de 1.0450

Miroslaw Bawulski 08:24 2025-01-28 UTC+2

GBP/USD: plan para la sesión europea del 27 de enero. Informes COT del Commitment of Traders (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). La libra alcanzó la cifra de 25

El viernes pasado se formaron varios puntos de entrada adecuados. Echemos un vistazo al gráfico de 5 minutos y veamos qué ocurrió. En mi pronóstico de la mañana, presté atención

Miroslaw Bawulski 08:00 2025-01-27 UTC+2

EUR/USD: plan para la sesión europea del 27 de enero. Informes COT de los operadores (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). Los compradores del euro se enfriaron un poco

El viernes pasado se formaron varios puntos de entrada adecuados. Echemos un vistazo al gráfico de 5 minutos y veamos qué ocurrió. En mi previsión de la mañana, me centré

Miroslaw Bawulski 08:00 2025-01-27 UTC+2

Recomendaciones para operar con el par GBP/USD y análisis de las operaciones del 24 de enero. La libra vuelve a llamar a puertas cerradas.

El par de divisas GBP/USD también se negoció más lateral que al alza o a la baja el jueves. En la sesión americana se inició un movimiento alcista bastante débil

Paolo Greco 08:19 2025-01-24 UTC+2

Recomendaciones para operar con el par EUR/USD y análisis de las operaciones del 24 de enero. El euro permanece inmóvil.

El par de divisas EUR/USD se mantuvo en el mismo lugar durante casi toda la jornada del jueves. Sólo en la sesión americana comenzó algún movimiento, aunque no estaba relacionado

Paolo Greco 08:19 2025-01-24 UTC+2

Recomendaciones para operar y análisis de las operaciones con el par GBP/USD para el 23 de enero. La libra descansó el miércoles.

El par de divisas GBP/USD también subió un poco más el miércoles. El panorama técnico para el euro y la libra es casi idéntico en este momento. La única diferencia

Paolo Greco 09:01 2025-01-23 UTC+2

Recomendaciones para operar con el par EUR/USD y análisis de las operaciones para el 23 de enero. El euro continúa subiendo mientras existe una oportunidad.

El par de divisas EUR/USD continuó con un débil movimiento alcista durante el miércoles. No hay motivos para una nueva subida del euro y no podría haberlo. Si el lunes

Paolo Greco 07:20 2025-01-23 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.