US stock indices are tumbling and have already reached a 6-week low. The Nasdaq 100 futures lost nearly 1% after Nvidia Corp. warned that new rules on export to China may result in hundreds of millions of dollars in lost revenue. Later, the index managed to regain some ground. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 futures extended their losses from yesterday by another 0.5%. The Dow Jones declined by nearly 0.3% in the morning session.
European bonds are falling as well. Thus, Italy's 10-year bond yield rose above 4% for the first time since June as investors are betting on tighter monetary policy of the ECB that may be revealed next week. Several bank officials have recently mentioned the possibility of an aggressive rate hike.
In addition to that, investors are fleeing from risk assets and seeking a safe haven in cash. Fears over the global economic downturn are getting stronger as European and American central banks are pursuing aggressive monetary policy in an attempt to tackle inflation.
In the commodities market, oil and gas prices have slightly eased amid speculations that the EU is considering measures to stabilize the situation in the energy market. The energy crisis has already sparked record-high inflation. Therefore, the ECB is widely expected to raise the rate straight by 75 basis points. However, not everyone believes in this scenario judging by the behavior of the euro.
Tomorrow, the employment report will be published in the US. This data will determine the direction of the stock market. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that if the currently overheated labor market remained robust, the regulator might raise the rate by 0.75% which is another bearish factor for stocks and other risk assets.
Analysts note that apart from Fed's policy, the US stock market is under pressure from other factors, including a slowdown of economic growth in China and stagflation in Europe. In the future, this may turn into a negative macroeconomic environment with higher rates and a slower pace of growth.
Premarket trading
Ciena shares tumbled by 11.6% in premarket trading after the networking systems company missed its fiscal third-quarter profit target. Customer demand is still strong but the sales are affected by component supply issues.
OKTA stocks plunged by 16.1% despite better-than-expected quarterly results and an improved outlook. The software company said it faced unexpected integration issues following its acquisition of rival Auth0 last year.
As was mentioned above, Nvidia fell sharply by 4.3% in the premarket after the graphics chip maker warned it expects sales to increase by as much as $400 million due to new US licensing requirements. Those rules will impose restrictions on shipments of its most advanced chips to China. Advanced Micro Devices said that new requirements may impact some of its chips as well, so its stock fell by 2.6%.
As for the technical outlook for S&P 500, the index is clearly trading in the bear market. Today, bulls may get a chance to develop an upward correction but they will need to pass the level of $3,942 to do this. This is the pivot level to watch in case the US data is positive. Its breakout will validate the start of a correction. If the downtrend continues, a break below $3,905 will push the price further towards the low of $3,872. This will pave the way down to $3,835 where the downward pressure may ease slightly. An upside movement will be confirmed only when bulls take control over the resistance of $3,942. The level of $3,968 will act as the next target. This will push the price up towards $4,000, where large market players will step in. Some of the traders may want to take profit on long positions. The level of $4,038 is seen as a more distant target.
